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I had the pleasure in speaking with Tina Tamboer-Glatfelter with the Cromford Report on her take on the Scottsdale and Phoenix Real Estate market forecast. For those of you who are not familiar with the Cromford article, the Cromford Report was created by Michael Orr. Michael Orr is a highly regarded Arizona Real Estate\Realtor Expert, and in my humble opinion there is no better resource available. I asked Tina a few questions on the Scottsdale and Phoenix Real Estate Market Forecast.
1. What do you believe the trend in appreciation will be in the next year?
The Cromford Report tends to avert making long term predictions. However with that being said, it's reasonable to expect bank inventory to continue dipping and eventually diminishing to a non-threatening level in 2013. Without these more affordable properties in the calculations, median and average sale prices naturally rise. Also as investors follow the distressed inventory to out of Arizona, that will put regular buyers back in the driver seat in many areas. Traditional buyers requiring financing rely more on appraisals, which are very conservative and may slow down the appreciation rates as fewer cash buyers will be active. We may see prices lessen during the transition, but eventually get back on track to a sustainable appreciation rate.
2. What is the difference in this atmosphere for more affordable end price points versus high-end end obtainable points?
Prices are driven in part by want. Lower end demand is changed more by business, cost and interest rates for example. Higher end demand may be affected more by corporate profits and stock market performance. As past returns have trended, the lower end prices tend to adjust first, then the higher end follows a year after. If this trend holds true for our recovery, then the lower end has been recovering for over a year now and we should begin to see some assistance for the higher end in 2013.
3. We have seen low inventory for Scottsdale, do you see this trend continuing?
We've started to see the inventory taking an upward turn as Scottsdale enters into a seasonal decline in demand, especially in the northern upscale communities. In the short term, I predict we'll see inventory in Scottsdale swell until "Buyer Season" starts in January.
What does this information mean to you? If you are looking to buy, expect prices to be up, but inventory being higher over the next year--so more choices, more negotiating power etc. If you are looking to sell, prices will be higher but you will have less negotiating power next year than you would in this seller's market.
If you would like a custom market report for a specific neighborhood, please contact Jennifer Wehner, Top Producing Scottsdale Real Estate Agent. Call me now and I would be happy to set that up for you. Please keep me in mind if you are looking to buy or sell Real Estate in Phoenix or Scottsdale. Jennifer Wehner 480-748-6925.
1. What do you believe the trend in appreciation will be in the next year?
The Cromford Report tends to avert making long term predictions. However with that being said, it's reasonable to expect bank inventory to continue dipping and eventually diminishing to a non-threatening level in 2013. Without these more affordable properties in the calculations, median and average sale prices naturally rise. Also as investors follow the distressed inventory to out of Arizona, that will put regular buyers back in the driver seat in many areas. Traditional buyers requiring financing rely more on appraisals, which are very conservative and may slow down the appreciation rates as fewer cash buyers will be active. We may see prices lessen during the transition, but eventually get back on track to a sustainable appreciation rate.
2. What is the difference in this atmosphere for more affordable end price points versus high-end end obtainable points?
Prices are driven in part by want. Lower end demand is changed more by business, cost and interest rates for example. Higher end demand may be affected more by corporate profits and stock market performance. As past returns have trended, the lower end prices tend to adjust first, then the higher end follows a year after. If this trend holds true for our recovery, then the lower end has been recovering for over a year now and we should begin to see some assistance for the higher end in 2013.
3. We have seen low inventory for Scottsdale, do you see this trend continuing?
We've started to see the inventory taking an upward turn as Scottsdale enters into a seasonal decline in demand, especially in the northern upscale communities. In the short term, I predict we'll see inventory in Scottsdale swell until "Buyer Season" starts in January.
What does this information mean to you? If you are looking to buy, expect prices to be up, but inventory being higher over the next year--so more choices, more negotiating power etc. If you are looking to sell, prices will be higher but you will have less negotiating power next year than you would in this seller's market.
If you would like a custom market report for a specific neighborhood, please contact Jennifer Wehner, Top Producing Scottsdale Real Estate Agent. Call me now and I would be happy to set that up for you. Please keep me in mind if you are looking to buy or sell Real Estate in Phoenix or Scottsdale. Jennifer Wehner 480-748-6925.
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